Regardless of which scenario plays out, people become convinced that “they saw it coming.” In reality, people usually consider many different scenarios of what might happen in the future, but there’s no way to be certain which one of them will ultimately materialize. After an event, people often believe they knew the outcome of the event before it actually happened. Hindsight bias is a type of cognitive bias that causes people to convince themselves that a past event was predictable or inevitable. Hindsight bias is the reason behind the “Monday morning quarterback” phenomenon.īecause people feel that they “knew it all along,” they overestimate their ability to foresee the outcome of future events, such as medical errors, sport scores, or election results. When you know the result, you know what worked and what didn’t work during the game. However, it is easy to pass judgment from a position of hindsight and to recognize bad decisions after the fact. This is particularly the case after a loss. Example: Hindsight biasFootball fans often criticize or question the actions of players or coaches in what is known as “Monday morning quarterbacking.” They often claim they knew the result before the game was over and that the outcome was easily preventable. This can lead them to take unnecessary risks or judge others too harshly. Due to this, people think their judgment is better than it is. Hindsight bias is the tendency to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. Try for free What Is Hindsight Bias? | Definition & Examples This is why it’s important to add objectivity to your ideas and properly set up campaigns.Eliminate grammar errors and improve your writing with our free AI-powered grammar checker. However, I have not considered the subject line, call to action and a variety of other factors that may have contributed to the increased CTR. If the CTR increases for the newsletter with the image in it, I may automatically assume that the campaign was successful because of the image. This is why it’s best to establish guidelines on what is successful and what is not.įor example, say I set up an experiment to see if including an image in my email newsletter increases click through rates. Then, as you look back on the results, you’ll use hindsight bias to justify why things happened the way that they did. Inconclusive Experiments: If marketing experiments are not set up properly, it’s easy to identify something as a “win”, fudge numbers, or simply be left with inconclusive data. This is exactly what happened to JC Penney’s revenue in 2012. Now when you try to take discounts away, your revenue may drop dramatically. For example, you may condition customers to expect discounts, meaning that they will only spend money when there is a sale. This may be the case, but there are also adverse effects. In fact, you want them to be at the point that they they are telling their friends, “I knew this would be the best company to buy X from.”ĭiscounting: Businesses may assume that discounts increase revenue. These customers are genuinely happy that they bought your product as they feel that the value they receive was worth more than the price they paid. Honest Marketing: When marketing to customers, you need them to hit a point where they select your product or service and are later so satisfied that they congratulate themselves. Hindsight bias happens when someone sees an event as predictable and happens as they guessed it would, even if they have little to no objective reason for making that prediction. Also Known As: The "knew-it-all-along" effect, or creeping determinism.
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